Through Waning Confidence and Economic Indicators
In the United States, the fading warmth of summer is matched by a cooling in consumer confidence, fueled by persistently high prices and interest rates that cast a shadow over spending intentions. As we bid adieu to summer, the collective financial sentiment of Americans is veering towards uncertainty due to the weight of soaring prices and borrowing costs.
Indications of this economic shift are also apparent in the typically robust US job market, as signs of a slowdown come to the fore. The Conference Board, a prominent business research group, revealed that its consumer confidence index experienced a significant drop from a revised reading of 114 in July to 106.1 in August. Analysts’ predictions, which centered around a reading of 116, were notably off the mark.
The decline in August essentially eroded the gains that had been accrued in the previous months of June and July. This plummet is reminiscent of the stock market’s downward trajectory during the same period, highlighting an interconnectedness between economic factors.
This index, a holistic measure encompassing both Americans’ assessment of the present economic conditions and their outlook for the next half-year, showcases noteworthy reductions in both dimensions. The perspective on current conditions slipped from 153 to 144.8, while the index for future expectations dipped from 88 in July to 80.2. Notably, readings below 80 in future expectations historically serve as a foreboding indicator of an impending recession within a year.
Given that consumer spending contributes to roughly 70% of the entire US economic activity, economists and investors alike closely monitor the populace’s mood to anticipate its ramifications on the broader economy.
A resurgence in confidence had been discernible in the later part of spring, coinciding with a moderation in inflation following 11 interest-rate hikes orchestrated by the Federal Reserve. However, this month’s downward spiral in confidence reveals a sense of apprehension among consumers, particularly concerning expenditures on non-essential goods. The concern is compounded when considering that such purchases might need to be financed through credit cards carrying elevated interest rates.
The mounting costs of essential items in everyday life are also a significant source of frustration for consumers. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, remarked that consumer feedback underscored an ongoing preoccupation with rising prices, spanning across groceries, gasoline, and other essential expenses.
Unsurprisingly, the plummet in consumer spending has left a mark on the financial performance of several notable retailers. Retail giant Target recently disclosed its first quarterly sales contraction in six years, attributed to cautious consumer spending habits. Home Depot, the nation’s largest home improvement retailer, reported a decline in sales, particularly in larger ticket items requiring financing.
Best Buy, a significant player in the consumer electronics sector, unveiled a slide in sales and profits during the second quarter, indicating a decline in gadget spending after a period of splurging during the pandemic.
Despite these challenges, the US economy, the largest on the global stage, has exhibited remarkable resilience in the face of markedly elevated borrowing costs. The job market is proving to be a bright spot, with employers adding a robust 278,000 jobs on average each month in the current year. The unemployment rate stands at a mere 3.5% as of July, hovering close to a historical low not seen in decades.
While there was optimism that the Federal Reserve could orchestrate a so-called soft landing for the economy—curbing inflation without plunging the nation into recession—recent data paints a different picture. The commencement of the school year and the forthcoming holiday season appear to be prompting Americans to tighten their purse strings, potentially heralding an evolving economic landscape.
